Speed ratings are always governed by condition, which is why the highest speed rated horse doesn't always win the race. How the horse obtained the speed rating is more important. If the horse's last race was a closely contested race, can we assume that it is a contender today? Not necessarily, unless the horse has demonstrated that the last performance was not its best effort.
The top four horses on speed ratings are probably the contenders, but it is necessary to take a look at the race to see how much was taken out of the horse. Horses that were in stiff contention are under more stress and the longer that stress is sustained the more loses its reserve energy.
Some handicappers will analyze the horse's last race and determine how that race will impact the horse's condition, the number one factor in racing. Does the race contribute to the horse's form or detract from it? Will the horse progress from that race or will it regress?
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And now they come down to the wire And it's number one And now number two And it's very close There'll need to be a photo finish Or an oil painting And now Louis leads with a left And Louis is in there slugging And it's a battle And now they're tearing hair There's hair all over the ring There's hair all over the place I don't know whose hair it is, ah ah It's mine And there goes the winner ... Beetlebomb
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