Monday, July 18, 2016

Picking Winners

In this system, three horses, and only three horses, are to be considered in each race. They are the top three picks on the tote board. The rest you ignore.

For each of the angles in a contender's record that you find below, give it a check mark:

1. The horse has finished first, second or third at today's approximate distance and on today's footing in its past three races. By approximate distance, we mean within a furlong. Further, only give credit if the race in question was on dirt, and today's race also is on dirt; if the race in question was on grass, and today's race also in on grass, or if the race in question was on synthetics, and today's race also is on synthetics. The stricter you are about this and other rudiments, the safer you (and your bet) will be.

2. The horse finished first, second or third in today's class or better in its last three starts. The general class of races, in descending order: Grade 1 stakes; Grade 2 stakes; Grade 3 stakes; ungraded stakes with purses of $100,000 or more; ungraded stakes with purses below $100,000; nonwinners-of-3 allowances; nonwinners-of-2 allowances; nonwinners-of-1 (or entry-level) allowances; allowances/optional claimers with similar NW-3, NW-2 or NW-1 conditions, and maiden-special-weights.

3. The horse is dropping in class off its last race, which must have been in the past 45 days.

4. The horse must have won 20 percent or better of at least five starts this year, or this year and last.

5. The horse posted a big win (by three lengths or more) in its last out in the past 45 days.

6. The horse had an excuse last out in the past 45 days, such as being bumped, impeded, steadied and the like; this factor becomes particularly intriguing if the horse was favored or ran a close second or third and might have prevailed without interference; the angle also is noteworthy in turf races, customarily staged under conditions (full fields on tight-turned courses) that can produce roller-derby-like donnybrooks.

7. The horse lost in its return to competition after a layoff exceeding 45 days or the horse lost in its first career start; both kinds are likely to improve, most especially if they showed any kind of zip in the races in question.

8. The horse posted a bullet five- or six-furlong workout in the past 14 days.

9. The horse's trainer has won at least 20 percent of his starts this year.

10. The horse's jockey has won at least 20 percent of his starts this year.

11. The horse is adding blinkers (which are designed to sharpen a horse's focus) or is receiving lasix (a diuretic used to control breathing problems) for the first time.

12. The horse is running on grass for the first time and has a Tomlinson rating for turf breeding of at least 320.

The pick is the horse with the most check marks. The bet is to win only, and only if the horse is even money or better in odds. We want to at least double our money if our horse connects.

Friday, July 15, 2016

Saratoga Tips

The Saratoga meet is from 7/22/2016-9/5/2016.

Three riders have dominated the meet over the past three years. The trio of Irad Ortiz, Jr, Javier Castellano, and John Velazquez have 106, 105, and 88 wins, respectively, over the last two years. This grand total of 299 victories from the 764 races run since 2014 accounts for 39.1-percent of all races run!

Who is the worst big name jock for riding longshots? Avoid trainer Todd Pletcher's man, John Velasquez. He wins less than 4% (4 for 102) on horses 8-1 or higher over the past
two meets.

Since this is such a special meet, it is also no surprise that the blue bloods, like Brown, Pletcher, and Mott are dominant at Saratoga. In fact, Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher have won a combined 112 races over the past two years. Bill Mott is a distant third in the standings with 28 wins.

When it comes to trainers starting a horse first race off the claim none compares to Jeremiah Englehart. He has won with 4 of his 7 runners over the past two years, scoring with a huge ROI in the process.

Monday, May 16, 2016

The Top Jockeys

Javier Castellano
Jose L. Ortiz
Irad Ortiz, Jr.
John R. Velazquez
Florent Geroux
Ricardo Santana, Jr.
Rafael Bejarano
Emisael Jaramillo
Edwin A. Maldonado
C.J. McMahon
Antonio A. Gallardo
Daniel Centeno
Russell A. Baze
Angel R. Rodriguez
Frankie Pennington
Jose Valdivia, Jr.
Iram Vargas Diego
Gerard Melancon
Deshawn L. Parker
Eurico Rosa Da Silva
Joshua Navarro
Hector Caballero
Jose Montano

Saturday, April 2, 2016

Money Management

"It is impossible to profit or manage your money when you have not attached value to what it is you are about to invest in."

Steve Fierro, The Four Quarters of Horse Investing

Friday, May 24, 2013

Approach to Handicapping

"I think to be successful it's very important to have flexibility in your thinking. I think of it like a big toolbox full of handicapping tools, and every race is a unique puzzle, so for every unique race you use a different set of tools. And the tools are always weighted differently, depending on the race. The key is knowing which tool to use on which race."

-Jessica Pacheco

Sunday, June 10, 2012

Huge Payoff System

1. Horse must have finished fourth or fifth in its second race back and in the money in its most recent race.
2. Horse must be racing at same track today.
3. Require a minimum of 5-1 odds