Picking Winners

In this system, three horses, and only three horses, are to be considered in each race. They are the top three picks on the tote board. The rest you ignore.

For each of the angles in a contender's record that you find below, give it a check mark:

1. The horse has finished first, second or third at today's approximate distance and on today's footing in its past three races. By approximate distance, we mean within a furlong. Further, only give credit if the race in question was on dirt, and today's race also is on dirt; if the race in question was on grass, and today's race also in on grass, or if the race in question was on synthetics, and today's race also is on synthetics. The stricter you are about this and other rudiments, the safer you (and your bet) will be.

2. The horse finished first, second or third in today's class or better in its last three starts. The general class of races, in descending order: Grade 1 stakes; Grade 2 stakes; Grade 3 stakes; ungraded stakes with purses of $100,000 or more; ungraded stakes with purses below $100,000; nonwinners-of-3 allowances; nonwinners-of-2 allowances; nonwinners-of-1 (or entry-level) allowances; allowances/optional claimers with similar NW-3, NW-2 or NW-1 conditions, and maiden-special-weights.

3. The horse is dropping in class off its last race, which must have been in the past 45 days.

4. The horse must have won 20 percent or better of at least five starts this year, or this year and last.

5. The horse posted a big win (by three lengths or more) in its last out in the past 45 days.

6. The horse had an excuse last out in the past 45 days, such as being bumped, impeded, steadied and the like; this factor becomes particularly intriguing if the horse was favored or ran a close second or third and might have prevailed without interference; the angle also is noteworthy in turf races, customarily staged under conditions (full fields on tight-turned courses) that can produce roller-derby-like donnybrooks.

7. The horse lost in its return to competition after a layoff exceeding 45 days or the horse lost in its first career start; both kinds are likely to improve, most especially if they showed any kind of zip in the races in question.

8. The horse posted a bullet five- or six-furlong workout in the past 14 days.

9. The horse's trainer has won at least 20 percent of his starts this year.

10. The horse's jockey has won at least 20 percent of his starts this year.

11. The horse is adding blinkers (which are designed to sharpen a horse's focus) or is receiving lasix (a diuretic used to control breathing problems) for the first time.

12. The horse is running on grass for the first time and has a Tomlinson rating for turf breeding of at least 320.

The pick is the horse with the most check marks. The bet is to win only, and only if the horse is even money or better in odds. We want to at least double our money if our horse connects.